Statistics on the number of applications for unemployment insurance in the United States show that the number of people continuing to receive benefits increased from the previous week, reaching the highest level in about two years. It has become clear that it is becoming increasingly difficult for unemployed people to find new work.
While a resilient labor market is supporting economic growth this year, many economists expect growth to lose momentum as rising borrowing costs weigh on it. Companies are hiring at a slower pace, unemployment is rising, wage growth is slowing, and consumer spending is down slightly ahead of the holiday season.
Unemployment insurance application statistics are particularly volatile around holidays. Last week included the Veterans Day holiday. The less volatile four-week moving average rose to 220,250 cases.
Eliza Winger, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said, “In addition to the increase in the number of new unemployment insurance claims, the number of continuing recipients is still increasing, which can be interpreted as a continued softening of the labor market. “The data suggests the unemployment rate will rise slightly in November from 3.9% in October, indicating that the Fed is done raising interest rates for the rest of the year.”
The number of applications has increased even before seasonal adjustment. There was a particular increase in Massachusetts and New York. The number of continuous recipients on a pre-seasonally adjusted basis decreased for the first time in four weeks. Significant declines occurred in California and Michigan.
Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander US Capital Markets, said in a report: “If the numbers are trending up sharply, we need to be careful, but at this time of year… “If an abnormal value appears once, there is no need to focus on it until the weekly changes continue and start moving in one direction.”
See table for detailed statistics.
Original title: US Continuing Jobless Claims Rise to Highest in Almost Two Years (excerpt), US Weekly Jobless Claims Rose 13K to 231K; Est. 220K (excerpt)
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