U.S. economy could have a “soft landing”; economic risks are “two-sided” – Director Cook | Reuters

[サンフランシスコ １６日 ロイター] – U.S. Federal Reserve Board Director John Cook said on the 16th that the Fed must navigate the risk of over-reacting to inflation and under-reacting.

In his manuscript for the San Francisco Fed’s conference on Asian economic policy, Director Cook said, “Although this is not confirmed, a “soft landing” for the economy is possible if disinflation continues and the labor market is strong.” “The risk is two-pronged. We have to balance the risk of not tightening enough with the risk of tightening too much.”

He also pointed out that economic growth continues and consumer confidence remains strong. “If demand momentum continues, the economy and labor market may remain tight, potentially slowing the pace of disinflation.”

At the same time, he noted that much progress has been made, with more workers entering the labor market reflecting the strong demand for labor. He said there is a possibility that disinflation will further advance, given factors such as an increase in the supply of apartment buildings.

It also pointed out that low-income households have largely exhausted their savings, and small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on short-term borrowings are facing a sharp credit crunch. He said there were also signs of latent stress.

In addition, other central banks around the world are tightening policy rapidly, adding, “If other central banks are tightening, there will be a ripple effect, so banks may have to moderate their measures somewhat.” ” he said. However, he added, “When there is uncertainty, it is difficult to judge the exact degree of spillover effects.”

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