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Column: “Earning power” with AI, which makes a difference in the evaluation of major IT companies in the market | Reuters

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NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) – Which would be better: searching for new “gold mines” in the form of artificial intelligence (AI) or selling digging tools like picks and shovels? Microsoft (MSFT.O) New Tab opens new taband Google Holding Company Alphabet (GOOGL.O) New Tab opens new tabLooking at its quarterly results and the market’s positive reaction to them, it appears that there are benefits to being involved in both gold exploration and tool sales.
For example, Meta Platforms (META.O) New Tab opens new tabis looking for money, and the situation is not looking good. When the company announced on the 25th that it would spend up to $40 billion on AI-related business plans this year, its market capitalization suddenly fell to $130 billion. It could benefit from automated tools that generate more engaging content and help customers do business with them. But it takes years for such services to reach a certain profitable scale. There’s no guarantee that founder Mark Zuckerberg’s dream of offering more targeted videos or AI-powered sunglasses will lead to big profits.
On the other hand, Nvidia (NVDA.O) sells tools. New Tab opens new tabIt is more obvious that Japan is reaping the benefits of AI. Sales are expected to grow more than 80% this year as companies race to use NVIDIA chips to learn bigger AI systems and build more data centers. Expanding profits. Given that the company’s business has an immediate need, some degree of certainty, and future potential, LSEG data suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times projected EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) over the next 12 months. , it’s no surprise that it’s about twice the size of the meta.

Microsoft and Alphabet sit somewhere between Meta and NVIDIA. Microsoft, like Meta, is in some ways betting on an uncertain future. For example, a customer may eventually upgrade their business software “Office.” Analysts say capital spending this year should be more than $40 billion, double what it was three years ago, while sales growth is about half that pace. However, Microsoft is different in that it is also a seller of a gold-mining tool called Azure, a cloud service. Azure is used by companies such as OpenAI for learning and operating AI systems, and sales increased by 31% in the first quarter. The Intelligent Cloud division, which includes Azure, is now Microsoft’s largest and fastest-growing business.

Alphabet’s cloud division also posted a 28% revenue increase in the first quarter, with operating profit nearly five times higher than a year earlier. Thanks in part to the company’s decision to pay a dividend for the first time, its stock price rose about 13% in after-hours trading. Microsoft stock was also bought after the announcement of its financial results, and its price-to-earnings ratio based on expected EBITDA is about 70% higher than Meta.

It remains to be seen who will unearth the “gold mine” that will lead to real profits. However, until then, investors will actively evaluate companies that can make steady profits by selling tools, rather than pouring money into businesses that may or may not be successful.

Reuters Graphics

●Background news

*Microsoft announced on the 25th that its first quarter sales were $61.9 billion, an increase of 17% from the same period last year. Earnings per share increased from $2.45 to $2.94.See more

*Alphabet’s first quarter results showed sales of $80.5 billion, an increase of 15% year-on-year, and earnings per share of $1.89, an increase of 62%. The company also announced its first dividend payment.See more

(The author is a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. This column is written based on the author’s personal views.)

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The article is in Japanese

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