The dollar rose to the 158 yen level, hitting a new high for the first time in 34 years. In addition to expectations that the Bank of Japan would maintain its policy status quo, U.S. inflation indicators were largely in line with expectations, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve would delay the start of interest rate cuts.
The Bank of Japan maintained its current policy at its monetary policy meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda did not make any in-depth comments on the weak yen at a press conference, and the yen-selling trend became even stronger.See more
According to EBS, the dollar/yen pair rose 1.7% to 158.275 yen in late trading.
At one point, the dollar price plummeted to 154.97 yen, and there was widespread speculation that a “rate check” had been introduced, requiring financial institutions to provide rates on the assumption that they would intervene or intervene to buy the yen. In the market, it is believed that a strong sense of wariness of intervention among participants led to a temporary concentration of dollar selling.See more
The dollar/yen pair is on track to rise by 2% for the week, the biggest increase since mid-January.
The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for March announced on the 26th rose 0.3% from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The year-on-year increase was 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6% rise. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, the same growth rate as February.See more
Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO, said that although the PCE price index did not show as much upside to inflation as had been feared, giving some sense of relief, “The Fed’s inflation indicator has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year. It’s on the rise,” he said. “It’s unlikely to give the Fed any confidence that inflation is calming down,” he said.
According to CME FedWatch, the market’s probability of a rate cut in September due to PCE is 58%, down from 68% a week ago. The probability of a December interest rate cut is priced in at over 80%.
The dollar index against major currencies rose 0.3% to 105.93.
The euro/dollar exchange rate fell 0.2% to $1.0705. The stock is expected to rise 0.4% for the week, the highest growth rate since early March.
The euro/yen pair briefly hit a 16-year high of 168.85 yen. After that, the stock rose 1.1% to around 168.845 yen. The stock is expected to rise 2.5% on a weekly basis, marking the largest increase since mid-June last year.
GBP/USD fell 0.1% to $1.2501. This week it rose 1.1%. This is the biggest price increase since early March.
Markets are focusing on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.
NY foreign exchange market:
Yields on government bonds with longer maturities have declined. The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released this morning was largely in line with expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence in inflation.
The PCE price index in March increased by 0.3% from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The year-on-year increase was 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6% rise. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, the same growth rate as February.See more
Additionally, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final figures for April released on the same day showed that inflation expectations for the year ahead were 3.2%.
While the March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced this month and the previous day’s first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) indicate accelerating inflation, the market’s expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) to start cutting interest rates are There are growing expectations that interest rates will be lowered and that interest rate cuts will begin in September.
Stephen Golla, head of U.S. Treasury sales and trading at Stone He expressed the view that there may be room for accepting that the gender is low.
In late trading, the yield on the 10-year note fell 4 basis points (bp) to 4.671%, while the yield on the 2-year note was little changed at 4.998%.
The difference between 2-year and 10-year bond yields was -33 basis points, an increase of 3 basis points.
US financial/bond market:
Alphabet’s first dividend, up to $70 billion in share buybacks, and strong first-quarter results were well received, with the stock price rising 10% to a record high. The market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion.See more
Microsoft also rose 1.8%. In the third quarter (ending March), sales and profits exceeded market expectations.See more
“Microsoft and Google’s results significantly address concerns raised in Meta’s results that investments in data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) will squeeze profit margins,” said Tom Plumb, president and lead portfolio manager at Plumb Funds. It has softened,” he said. “Google and Microsoft have both indicated that they expect margin expansion under their current capital plans, which allays many of the concerns about data computing growth.”
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for March released by the US Department of Commerce on the 26th showed a moderate increase in the inflation rate. However, as housing prices remain high, the US Federal Reserve has indicated that it may maintain interest rate levels for the time being.See more
In financial markets, the probability that the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) will cut interest rates in September has increased.
Advancing issues outnumbered declining issues on the New York Stock Exchange by a 2.25-to-1 ratio. On the Nasdaq, there were also many stocks that rose by a ratio of 1.84 to 1.
The total trading volume on US exchanges was 9.88 billion shares. The average for the last 20 business days was 11.01 billion shares.
US stock market:
Gold futures continued to rise as a sense of security spread due to the decline in US long-term interest rates. The settlement price (equivalent to the closing price) of the main contract month, June, was $2,347.20 per ounce, up $4.70 (0.20%) from the previous day. It was down 2.8% for the week.
NY precious metals:
Although expectations for a postponement of the U.S. interest rate cut held back the upside, concerns about the escalating situation in the Middle East continued to be a push factor, and prices continued to rise slightly. The settlement price (equivalent to the closing price) of the June contract for the standard U.S. oil grade WTI was $83.85 per barrel, up $0.28 (0.34%) from the previous day. The July contract rose $0.38 to $83.13.
NYMEX Energy:
This is a provisional value based on LSEG data.The previous day’s ratio may not match
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Tags: Market Summary #26th Dollar rises yen level stocks rise longterm bond yields fall Reuters
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