The expert group “Population Strategy Council” analyzed the number of women in their 20s to 30s and the rate of decline in the “young female population” by city, ward, town, and village based on estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. .
In the 30 years up to 2050, there will be 744 local governments, or 40% of all local governments, where the young female population will be less than half, and it is predicted that these local governments will experience a sharp decline in population and may eventually disappear. .
Compared to a similar analysis conducted 10 years ago in 2014, the number of “local governments at risk of disappearing” is 152 fewer.
This is because the latest population estimates predict that the number of foreigners entering the country will increase in the future, but a group of experts says, “In reality, the trend toward a declining birthrate has not changed at all, and there is no reason to be optimistic about the situation.” “No.”
This time, 99 local governments were newly designated as “local governments at risk of disappearing,” including 33 local governments in Fukushima Prefecture that were not targeted last time due to the effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
On the other hand, there are 239 local governments that have escaped the status of “municipalities that are at risk of disappearing.”
In this analysis, we named 65 local governments where the decline rate of the young female population is less than 20% by 2050 as “Independent and Sustainable Local Governments,” and “Even after 100 years, nearly 50% of young women will remain.” “It is considered to be highly sustainable.”
In addition, 25 local governments, mainly in large cities, that have low birthrates and rely on population inflows from other areas are called “black hole local governments,” and these areas require special measures to improve birthrates. It is said that it is.
Tags: local governments risk disappearing ShinMasuda report Population Strategy Council announces NHK
