The person who wrote this article
Yugo Okita
On the 24th, the Population Strategy Council, a private organization made up of business community volunteers, released a report analyzing the sustainability of 1,729 local governments nationwide. Over the 30-year period from 2020 to 2050, municipalities in which the number of women in their 20s and 30s, who are the main generation of children, will decrease by 50% or more are designated as “local governments at risk of disappearing.” Nationwide, there were 744 municipalities, over 40% of the total. , which was zero in the prefecture. Seventeen municipalities within the prefecture were designated as “independent and sustainable municipalities,” where many young women will remain even 100 years from now, accounting for more than a quarter of the nation’s 65 municipalities.
In 2014, the Japan Creation Council, chaired by Japan Post President Hiroya Masuda, a member of the Population Strategy Council, similarly focused on the decline in the number of young women and concluded that 896 local governments were at risk of disappearing. According to the 2014 report, if the population movement does not subside, 10 towns and villages within the prefecture – Higashi Village, Motobu Town, Ie Village, Tokashiki Village, Zamami Village, Izena Village, Kumejima Town, Tarama Village, Taketomi Town, and Yonaguni Town – will be affected from 2010. It was thought that the number of young women had decreased by more than 50% over the last 30 years and was at risk of disappearing, but this report shows that both cases have been reversed.
In this report, we take a new approach by classifying local governments based on the rate of decline in young women based on the assumption that there is population movement (migration assumption) and the case that there is no population movement (locked-down population).
Among the prefecture’s cities, towns and villages, the number of women under lockdown will increase in 19 municipalities, including the northern part of the main island and remote island municipalities, in 2050 compared to 2020. On the other hand, assuming that the number of people moving will decrease compared to 2020 in 40 municipalities excluding Tarama Village, the number of people will decrease by 44.3% in Kumejima Town, 39.6% in Kunigami Village, and 39.5% in Iheya Village. Social decline due to population outflow is becoming more apparent in the northern part of the main island and in remote island municipalities.
(Yugo Okita)
