Osaka December Night Session
Nikkei 225 futures 33400 -50 (-0.14%)
TOPIX futures 2368.5 -2.5 (-0.10%)
Chicago Nikkei Average Futures 33405 -45
(Note: Night session, CME is relative to Osaka’s intraday closing price)
In the US market on the 16th, the NY Dow fell, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose. Cisco Systems (CSCO) announced quarterly results after the close of trading the previous day, which exceeded expectations, but the company’s stock fell sharply due to negative revisions to its full-year forecast. In addition, Wal-Mart (WMT), which announced its full-year forecast along with its quarterly results in the morning, was sold heavily as it fell short of expectations, and these two stocks pushed down the NY Dow.
However, the number of new applications for unemployment insurance increased by 13,000 from the previous week to 231,000, which exceeded expectations and was the highest level since August, leading to the perception that the tight labor market was easing. The downside was limited as expectations for a prolonged period of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) receded. The decline in US long-term interest rates also provided support. In the S&P 500 industry index, insurance, software and services, and media rose, while food and daily necessities retail, automobiles and parts, and energy fell.
The Chicago Nikkei average futures (December contract) settlement price was 33,405 yen, 45 yen lower than in Osaka. Nikkei 225 futures (December contract) opened at 33,450 yen, unchanged from Japan and Japan, and continued to consolidate between 33,390 yen and 33,490 yen. After the U.S. market opened, the price fell below the range and was seen selling as low as 33,210 yen at one point. However, after a round of selling, the rate of decline narrowed towards the end, closing the night session at 33,400 yen.
It looks like the market will start off with a slight advantage in profit-taking, with the market moving toward Chicago futures. Yesterday’s Nikkei 225 futures were bought as high as 33,620 yen in the morning, and then sold as low as 33,220 yen toward the end of the market in response to U.S. President Biden’s remarks after the U.S.-China summit meeting. The stock remained at the same level as the previous day’s closing price, showing signs of firmness. Even in the night session, the price was temporarily sold at 33,210 yen, but it has been showing signs of declining. U.S. President Biden’s remarks are not viewed as material in the U.S. market, and are likely to make it difficult to short the stock.
As Nikkei 225 futures are focused on the year-to-date high of 33,710 yen reached in mid-June, it is likely that there will be profit-taking on the recent rapid rise. However, as the price continues to move within the range of +1σ and +2σ of the Bollinger Band, which is moving upward, +2σ has risen to 33,620 yen, and the feeling of overheating is starting to ease. Although we will take short positions in the short term, our basic stance should be to go long, waiting for a push. Therefore, we assume the option exercise price to be in the range of 33,250 yen to 33,625 yen.
The VIX index rose to 14.32 (14.18 the previous day). However, there have been instances where it has dropped as low as 13.68, and the range is gradually lowering. In terms of direction, let’s focus on the September low of 12.68 and move towards risk appetite.
In addition, yesterday’s NT multiple fell to 14.10x for futures-based contracts. At one point, the ratio fell to 14.06 times when high-tech stocks were weakening, but there were times when it started to rise after rebalancing. The 200-day moving average line, which is at 14.05 times, and the 52-week line, which is moving around 14.03 times, are considered to be support lines, so in terms of direction, I would like to view the supply and demand situation as an effective way to aim for the spread with NT long. .
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