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Australian dollar/yen Today’s outlook “Australian CPI to watch! Will the extent of the RBA rate hike (forecast) change depending on the results?”2023/1/25 –

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I have summarized the trading scenarios that I would like to input when doing FX day trading of the Australian dollar.

Written by Tsutomu Nakamura, Research Institute
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table of contents

Today’s Australian Dollar Trading Scenario

Market price so far

Australian October-December Consumer Price Index (CPI) released today!
・Australia’s November monthly CPI increased 7.3% year-on-year, surpassing the previous month’s (+6.9%) and forecast (+7.2%) (January 11).

・Crude oil prices fell. This was attributed to heightened concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. The closing price is $80.13 per barrel (January 24).

・According to Australia’s December employment statistics, the number of employees decreased by 14,600, falling short of market expectations (an increase of 25,000). The unemployment rate was 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month. In addition, the labor force participation rate was 66.6% (January 19).

・On December 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held a monetary policy meeting. The policy rate was set at 3.10%, with an interest rate hike of 0.25%, which is in line with market expectations. The pace of future rate hikes depends on the data. The next meeting will be on February 7th.

Today’s Main Scenario

Featured Australian CPI! Will the RBA rate hike (expected) change depending on the results?

Australia’s October-December quarter (quarterly) CPI will be released today. The market forecast is 7.6% y/y, and it seems that Australia’s inflation has accelerated from the previous quarter (+7.3%). The Australian December employment statistics announced the other day (January 19) showed a decline in the number of employees contrary to market expectations. Expectations are rising. The RBA narrowed its rate hike to 0.25% in October last year, but if the Australian quarterly CPI is accelerating compared to the previous quarter, it seems nonsense for the RBA to postpone a rate hike at this timing. Also, if the quarterly CPI rises at the same rate as the previous quarter, or if there are no signs of a slowdown in inflation, the prospects for RBA rate hikes are likely to increase, which is likely to support the Australian dollar.

Individual assumed scenario

Australia’s October-December CPI confirms acceleration of inflation
⇒There is growing speculation that the RBA will continue its interest rate hike cycle.
⇒The Australian dollar is solid

chart analysis


Materials to watch in the future

Australia October-December CPI
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nakamura.jpg Researcher, Research Department, Research Institute
Tsutomu Nakamura
After studying at a university in the United States, he joined Ueda Harlow after returning to Japan. He has been a cover dealer for 8 years and is also involved in customer service development. From October 2021, he will join Research Institute Co., Ltd. Utilizing his excellent English skills and experience as a cover dealer, he is in charge of disseminating information to Forex beginners through reports and Twitter.

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