China dominates the energy battle in the South China Sea – an unpleasant reality for the US – Bloomberg

Vietnam was supposed to benefit from the discovery of one of the country’s largest natural gas fields this year.

The estimated 150 billion cubic meter natural gas field, enough to power a city the size of the capital Hanoi for decades, was discovered in 2011 80 kilometers off Vietnam’s central coast.

If everything goes according to plan, the U.S. The Blue Whale project, led by ExxonMobil, began operations late last year.

On the other side of the South China Sea, the Philippines has long looked to the abundant energy reserves off its west coast as a way to reduce its dependence on gas and oil imports.

However, Chinese fishing boats A fleet of government vessels from the Japan Coast Guard and large vessels known as “monsters” are ensuring that this never happens.

China claims vast territory across the entire South China Sea. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, rejected China’s claim in 2016, based on an ambiguous 1947 map depicting the so-called “nine-dash line.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping made this decision ignore. The situation in the disputed waters, where tensions are high, presents unpleasant facts for the United States and Southeast Asian countries. China has the upper hand in this conflict. In August 2023, China released a “10-dash line” map that added a new line to eastern Taiwan.

As tensions between the US and China rise in the South China Sea, Japan, the US, Australia and the Philippines hold their first maritime exercise – QuickTake

“China has effectively established a veto over new oil development within the U-shaped line.” Bill Hayton, author of “The South China Sea: A History of the Struggle for Hegemony in Asia.”

The Philippines and Vietnam imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the first time last year. BloombergNEF ( The Philippines is expected to spend nearly $1.4 billion (approximately 217 billion yen) on LNG purchases through September 2025, while Vietnam will pay $370 million over the same period, according to projections by BNEF. ing.

Both countries have long planned to import fuel to support economic growth, but the lack of development of domestic energy sources has put energy supplies at risk.

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“What China has done in the last five or six years may have completely shifted the energy sectors of Vietnam and the Philippines towards imports rather than developing their own sources,” Hayton said.

China’s increasingly assertive stance has become a diplomatic and military flashpoint. The United States and the Philippines began joint military exercises this week. Its scale has expanded over the past few years.

Tensions with China were also at the top of the agenda at the three-way meeting between US President Biden, Philippine President Marcos, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held in Washington on the 11th. The three leaders agreed to step up military exercises, and Biden emphasized support for the nearly 70-year-old defense pact with the Philippines.

“Any attack on Philippine aircraft, ships or troops in the South China Sea would trigger the Mutual Defense Treaty,” Biden said.

Japan, U.S. and Philippines first trilateral summit meeting – agreement to expand maritime training with expansion into China in mind

Philippine authorities say the country’s energy crisis is at an all-time high and the country needs to move forward with developing oil and gas reserves in waters where a court of arbitration has ruled the country has exclusive rights.

However, Chinese fishing fleets and ships of the Japan Coast Guard have swarmed the waters of the Spratly Islands, including Reed Bank, effectively blocking access.

In a recent interview, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro said, “It is urgent that we start now,” and that “China’s position is not tenable.”

However, China’s decades-long assertiveness in this area suggests that its position is quite tenable. Countries in Southeast Asia are suffering.

The Malampaya gas field off the coast of Palawan Island in the western Philippines supplies 20% of the electricity needed by Luzon Island, where the capital Manila is located, but it is predicted to be commercially depleted by 2027.

Some predict it will be sooner. More than 10 power plants in the Philippines were shut down last week due to the heat wave, causing brief power outages on Luzon island. With domestic energy supplies limited and imported energy prices rising, the risk of power outages is increasing.

Antonio Carpio, a former Philippine Supreme Court judge, predicted, “If Malampaya stops, Luzon’s economy will collapse. There will be 12 to 14 hours of power outage every day.” “Factories will close and investors will leave the Philippines. This is a matter of national survival for the Philippines and political survival for President Marcos,” he said.

On March 5, two Chinese Coast Guard vessels fired powerful water cannons directly at a Philippine ship dispatched to replenish the crew of the Philippine Navy’s Sierra Madre.

The Sierra Madre is a dilapidated warship stationed at Ayungin Reef (English name: Second Thomas Reef) in the disputed Spratly Islands, with a small number of soldiers taking turns in Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). It protects the reef.

The Philippine ship’s navigation was blocked by concentrated water cannons, and it was pushed backwards and sideways as the Chinese ship circled. Water cannons blew out the ship’s windows and several Filipino crew members were injured in the collision. A similar incident occurred on March 23rd.

In the collision late last year, five Chinese vessels tried to block the Philippine convoy’s replenishment mission with the Sierra Madre, with some stopping right next to the convoy. These types of high-risk encounters are becoming the norm.

Original title: Xi’s Fleet Is Winning the South China Sea Energy Fight (excerpt)