[House of Representatives by-election and the drifting Liberal Democratic Party]Shimane 1st Ward will be the only showdown between the ruling and opposition parties, and our Fumio Kishida, who is about to inadvertently decide to disband[Ichiro Yamamoto’s “Burning Business”]Miscellaneous thoughts on the perishing regions and politics in confusion (1 /4) | JBpress

(Ichiro Yamamoto: Deputy Executive Director and Senior Researcher, Information Law Research Institute)

Due to my work, I have recently been visiting Shimane Ward 1, where the future fate of the Kishida administration is predicted. It’s relatively fresh. This is because my specialty is research that looks at the trends of voters in the metropolitan area, and I don’t have many opportunities to work closely with voters in local elections.

So, this time, for the first time in a while, we spent two months listening to about 400 people and over 3,000 hours of stories from Shimane Prefecture residents.

I live in the middle of Tokyo, one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world, and my father recently passed away, so I am currently taking care of the inheritance, caring for 3 people, and looking after 4 children, and I am living with roots in Shimane. Even though I speak the same Japanese as the voters, I am acutely aware that our points of view and the way we view reality are different.

Shimane 1st Ward, which became a “condition” for a snap general election

This by-election in Shimane 1st Ward was due to the death of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Hiroyuki Hosoda, and it coincided with the election in the midst of the turmoil caused by the “politics and money” issue of party ticket Gottsuan.

The reason why this issue suddenly became a concern for the whole nation was because the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, failed to field a candidate in a by-election for a member who had resigned.

I believe that even if there are headwinds and a disadvantage, or even if the ruling party is at a disadvantage, it is better for the ruling party to firmly support its candidates, listen to the opinions of voters, frankly express their remorse, and then lose the election and purify themselves. I thought that perhaps the great people thought it would be difficult because they would be held responsible if they failed. But isn’t losing by default really boring? Indeed.

By-elections for members who resigned by March 15th will be held by April 28th. Originally, the Liberal Democratic Party should have nominated candidates in Nagasaki 3rd Ward, Tokyo 15th Ward, and Shimane 1st Ward and asked for public opinion, but unfortunately it was only in Shimane 1st Ward that they were able to nominate candidates and bring the ruling and opposition parties to a showdown. is.

Currently, there is a rumor going around that if the game master Fumio Kishida wins the Shimane 1st ward, he may call for a snap general election.

The idea is that the prime minister’s authority will be put at stake and a snap general election will be held at the end of the regular session of the Diet in June, with the opposition parties calling for a no-confidence motion. In that case, it is said that the vote may be counted on July 28th (one theory is July 14th).

I think it’s really strange that the condition for this big gamble is that the ruling party camp wins in Shimane 1 Ward, but since that’s what’s actually going on, I’d like to make this comment. There is nothing to be done.

However, in the middle of the metropolis of Tokyo, the test of whether Japan’s most powerful man, Fumio Kishida, will be dissolved is in stark contrast to Shimane Ward 1, a humble rural area where calm voters live. It’s a target. We, too, face the voters with a great sense of crisis.

Citizens of Shimane Prefecture are very laid-back.